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Direct Air Capture, Feasibility Model

A simple model, written in Python, running in your browser. It asks one question: when does the falling cost of capturing a tonne of CO₂ drop below the value of removing it? Move the sliders to see what would have to be true for DAC to pay off.

Cost of capture vs value of removal

The orange line is what it costs to capture a tonne; the green line is what a tonne earns. Where orange falls below green is breakeven.

Cost of capture Revenue available Gap per tonne

Would a plant pay for itself?

For a plant built in the chosen year, this adds up what it earns and what it costs across its life, both in today's money, and shows whether it comes out ahead.

How the model works

Two curves drawn against time. Cost starts at today's value and falls a fixed percentage each year toward a floor set by energy and storage, which do not get cheaper with learning. Revenue is the carbon credit price (rising each year) plus the 45Q tax credit where it applies. The year cost falls below revenue is breakeven.

The "Build a plant" view takes this one step further: for a plant of the chosen size built in the chosen year, it discounts the lifetime revenue and the lifetime cost back to today and compares them. If revenue beats cost, the plant has a positive net present value (NPV). The result depends most on the credit price and the energy-driven floor.

This is a screening and communication tool, not a forecast. Every output is conditional on the inputs. The carbon credit price, the discount rate, and storage access are the figures to confirm with Shell before relying on any number.

Current parameters

Sources

  • Sievert, K., Schmidt, T. S. & Steffen, B. (2024). Considering technology characteristics to project future costs of direct air capture. Joule 8(4), 979–999. doi:10.1016/j.joule.2024.02.005
  • Young, J. et al. (2023). The cost of direct air capture and storage can be reduced via strategic deployment but is unlikely to fall below stated cost targets. One Earth 6, 899–917.
  • IEAGHG (2021). Global Assessment of Direct Air Capture Costs.
  • IEA (2022). Direct Air Capture: A key technology for net zero.
  • NETL (2019). Carbon Dioxide Transport and Storage Costs in NETL Studies.
  • Smith, E. et al. (2021). The cost of CO₂ transport and storage in global integrated assessment modeling. Int. J. Greenhouse Gas Control.
  • Global CCS Institute & Payne Institute (2025). 45Q under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
  • CDR.fyi (2025). Direct Air Capture Market Snapshot.
  • Lebling, K. et al. (2025). Direct Air Capture: 6 Things to Know. World Resources Institute.